Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran

Ianchovichina, Elena; Devarajan, Shantayanan; Lakatos, Csilla

Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran

2016

Ianchovichina, Elena | Devarajan, Shantayanan | Lakatos, Csilla

This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.

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activities agricultural commodities agriculture air air transport animal products cane capital coal consumers consumption costs crude oil demand development economics economic growth economic implications economies elasticity electricity energy equilibrium exports gas imports inputs international trade investment market access markets natural gas oil production oils petroleum policies power prices production productivity sea transport structural change sugar cane supply supply response taxes trade trade barriers transport transportation vehicles wages water welfare wood products wto

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Oil exporting countries; Goods; Price of oil; World price; General equilibrium; Oil importers; Net oil; Petroleum products; Export commodity; Trading partners; Oil; True; Gdp; Oil prices; Cars; Base year; Financial transactions; Oil supply; Trade regime; Product differentiation; Benchmark; Oil exporters; Total factor productivity; Exporters; Regime change; Price; Theory; Outcomes; Approach; Oil use; Economy; Driving; Efficiency improvement; Central bank; Oil accounts; Trading blocs; Transport costs; Oil output; Barrels per day; Tariffs on imports; Transport equipment; Development policy; Motor vehicles; Travel; Export revenue; Competitiveness; Time horizon; Oil consumption; Chemical products; Payments; Oil exports; Trade restrictions; World economy; Oil imports; Utility; Tariff; Oil importing countries; Refined petroleum products; Tariff barriers; Capital use; Oil market; Benefits; Global economy; World prices; Automobile; Oil demand; Bilateral trade; Domestic oil; Global market; Oil price; Excess demand; Auto production; Automobile production; Border trade; Efficiency improvements; Gas technology; Capital goods; Crude oil extraction; Economic restrictions; Automobiles; Per capita income; Transport services; Tax; Ownership structure; Domestic oil consumption; Foreign competition; Utility function

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23726

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Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran

2016

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