Modeling the Impacts of Agricultural Support Policies on Emissions from Agriculture

To understand the impacts of support programs on global emissions, this paper considers the impacts of domestic subsidies, price distortions at the border, and investments in emission-reducing technologies on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. It uses a counterfactual global model scenario showing how much emissions from agricultural production would change if agricultural support were abolished worldwide. The analysis indicates that, without subsidies paid directly to farmers, output of emission-intensive activities and emissions would be smaller. Without trade protection, however, emissions would be higher. This is because protection reduces global demand more than it increases supply, and partly because some countries that currently tax agriculture have high emission intensities. Policies that directly reduce emission intensities yield much larger reductions in emissions than those targeting overall productivity growth to reduce emissions because of the rebound effect. Scenario analysis to understand the impacts of repurposed agricultural policy and support measures on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change is being undertaken in subsequent work, which will also take account of land-use change and alternative forms of agricultural support to align objectives of food security, farmers’ income security, production efficiency and resilience, and environmental protection.