The Effects of Rice Export Policy on Regional Income, Prices and the Poor

Kompas, Tom; Pham, Van Ha; Tuong, Nhu Che; Nguyen, Thi Minh Hoa; Bui, Trinh

The Effects of Rice Export Policy on Regional Income, Prices and the Poor

2010

Kompas, Tom | Pham, Van Ha | Tuong, Nhu Che | Nguyen, Thi Minh Hoa | Bui, Trinh

A 'bottom up' regional Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) model for Vietnam is constructed for 28 commodities and 8 regions (using a GSO input-output table for 2005). The model is used to analyze the recent dramatic increases in the world price of rice on the regional economy of Vietnam, and the Vietnamese policy response to limit exports. Although results show limited 'pro-poor' outcomes, the CGE model and a micro-simulation (using 2006 VHLSS - Vietnamese Household Living Standard Survey data) show that recent rice export quotas resulted in falls total rural savings as measured by the difference in total income less total production cost and consumption of rice. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section two provides the background and reviews existing studies in Vietnam that have tried to estimate the welfare impact of government policies in rice market. Section three describes the methods and data. The results from the CGE model and micro-simulation on household data are discussed in section four. Section five offer concluding remarks.

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Palabras clave de AGROVOC

agriculture benchmarks coffee commodities consumers cotton crops decision making domestic markets elasticity equilibrium exchange rate expenditure exports fao farming fisheries fixed capital food prices food security free trade government intervention grain income inflation inventories living standards multipliers paddy pepper perennial crops planting poultry private property produce property rights retail rural areas rural poor savings surplus tea trade liberalization wages world trade organization

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World trade; Gdp; Inflation rate; Market reform; Comparative advantage; Household welfare; Market integration; Delta region; Barriers to entry; Domestic market; Agricultural activities; Food policy; International food policy research institute; Consumer price; Calorie intake; Elasticity of substitution; Consumer price index; Spread; Regional dimension; Rice production; Poverty assessment; Rice cultivation; Production cost; Rural dwellers; Trade policy; Domestic price; Rice price; Rural households; Outputs; Spatial equilibrium model; Price changes; Benchmark; Regional economy; Domestic prices; Regional input; Price change; Hectares of land; Intermediate products; Capital stocks; Regional inequality; Commodity; Liberalization; Tax; Rice processing; Regional employment; Farm; Market reforms; Price increase; Remote region; Real income; Financial services; Farm assets; Domestic economy; Rice prices; Regional impacts; Regional income; Output; Inventory; Regional characteristics

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27579

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