Long-term forecast of Russian herring catch in the Baltic Sea

The aim of this article is to forecast of the Russian catch of the Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras for the next decade has been carried out. The necessity of this study is primarily due to socio-economic factors: the modernization of the fishing industry of the Kaliningrad region, increasing the volume of catches and processing of herring, capacity planning of fishing and fish processing companies in the region in the coming years. The stocks of commercial fish species in the Baltic Sea are transboundary. Scientific cooperation between the Baltic countries of the European Union and the Russian Federation is carried out in an international scientific organization dealing with the problems of complex study and exploitation of biological resources of the seas and oceans — the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) in the framework of international regulation of fishing and fishing of aquatic biological resources in the Baltic Sea. At present, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the herring stock, including in connection with the changes that have occurred in the ecosystem of the Baltic. Methods used: the forecast is based on three scenario calculations using a proven at the international level within the software ICES MFDP (Multi Fleet Deterministic Projection). Long-term series of biostatistical data by age group were used. The biological reference points recommended by ICES, fishing mortality, and the boundary reference point for spawning biomass were used to assess the possible catch. Novelty: such a long-term forecasting of the Russian catch for Baltic herring has not been performed before. Result: we obtained the possible values of the spawning stock biomass to 2030 and the Russian catches of herring in the Baltic Sea until 2029 in the current conditions of a decrease in the size of the herring stock below precautionary approach, gradually approaching the lower reference point. Practical significance: long-term forecast of herring catch in the Russian zone can serve as guidelines for fishing organizations when planning the sustainability of production indicators until 2030