The economics of Douglas-fir and red alder management with stochastic price trends
1993
Haight, R.G.
A financial analysis of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) management is conducted using yield projections from the Stand Projection Simulator for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The analysis includes uncertainty in the price trends and stocking levels of both species following reforestation. Results from a case study in which Douglas-fir price is likely to increase faster than red alder price show that (i) on more productive sites, greater regeneration investment is justified to increase the likelihood of Douglas-fir establishment; (ii) on less productive sites, low-cost regeneration options that produce mixed-species stands have expected present values close to or greater than a high-cost Douglas-fir regeneration effort; (iii) optimal precommercial removal of red alder depends on midrotation prices and regeneration success, and in many cases growing a mixed-species stand to maturity produces the highest economic return; (iv) commercial thinning of Douglas-fir increases the expected present value of the most intensive regeneration option by up to 10%. The low-cost regeneration options have relatively high expected returns because of low initial investments and the presence of two species that may have high values in the future. The sensitivity of these results to changes in the probability distributions of regeneration success and price trends is discussed
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