Estimation of economic effects of possible agricultural policy options in Slovenian agriculture. Part one: Estimation of market and income effects of Slovenian EU accession in the field of agriculture
2001
Kavcic, S. | Erjavec, E. (Ljubljana Univ. (Slovenia). Biotechnical Fac., Zootechnical Dept.)
This article aims at an assessment of the economic effects of Slovenia's accession to the EU in the field of agriculture. For this purpose, a sectoral model of Slovene agriculture APAS-PAM has been compiled, what allows for assessment of market and income effects for 10 key agricultural products with consideration to various accession scenarios. Accession under the scenario of complete acceptance of the Common Agricultural Policy mechanisms would bring no significant changes to the aggregate income level. Discrimination of the candidate countries in the field of direct payments would however result in a fall of aggregate income level for a third. Non-competitive production structures in the food-processing sector would deteriorate the economic situation of agricultural production up to further 30 %. Positive effects of different accession scenarios are expected in apple and, under assumption of eligibility for direct payments, also in coarse grains production. The economic situation in sugar beet and potato production is not expected to change significantly, which holds as well for milk and beef production under assumption of eligibility for compensation payments. Negative accession effects can be expected in pigmeat, poultry, cereal and grape production. The results reveal a great significance of the direct payments eligibility issue for preservation of the actual economic situation of agriculture after the accession. This holds especially for cereal and beef production.
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