Ecological environment assessment based on land use simulation: A case study in the Heihe River Basin

Ecological environment assessment can not only provide significant references for effective solutions to regional ecological problems, but also promote the benign interaction of socio–economic–ecological development. This study selected the Heihe River Basin (HRB) as the typical area to comprehensively evaluate the ecological environment from 2010 to 2030 based on the dynamics of land system (DLS) model, which is coupled with the biological abundance index (BAI), vegetation coverage index (VCI), water density index (WDI), land degradation index (LDI), and eco-environment quality index (EQI). The results indicate that the BAI and VCI will be high in the south and east, low in the north and west in general. Under the future baseline scenario, the changes of biological abundance, vegetation coverage, and deteriorating land in the midstream and downstream regions will may seriously hinder restoration of the ecological environment. In particular, the BAI in the midstream and downstream regions will decline more rapidly, with a rate of 10.30% and 18.59%, respectively. The water area will be scattered and less abundant overall, but the WDI in the midstream, that is up to 3.86 in 2030, will be higher than that in other regions. Results also show that the regions with high EQI are mainly located in the northeast and south region. It is predicted that the ecological fragile zones in the future will mainly distribute in the midstream and downstream regions, especially in Jiayuguan City and Jinta County. The EQI will drop by 44.28% and 11.40% during 2010–2030 without external conditions intervened. In addition, Qilian Mountain, Jiuquan City, Gaotai County, Linze County, and Shandan County will also have relatively strong recovery capacities under the influence of ecological policies. All above could provide the basis for the development of future watershed ecological environment management and protection planning.