Two models of grain temperatures and insect populations in stored wheat
2001
Mani, S. | Flinn, P.W. | Muir, W.E. | Jayas, D.S. | White, N.D.G.
Stored grain temperatures and population dynamics of rusty grain beetles, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens), predicted by a hot spot model, which included feedback from the insect model to the temperature model, and a spatial model, which did not include that feedback, were compared. For an initial grain temperature of 30 degrees C and an initial population of 10,000 adult insects in stored grain at Winnipeg, Canada, the hot spot model predicted a maximum of 120 adults/kg of wheat at the center of the grain bulk toward the end of fall and a maximum temperature of 39 degrees C. The spatial model predicted an adult population of 500 adults/kg of wheat and no increases in temperatures. For the same simulation conditions but using weather data for Topeka, Kansas, the hot spot model predicted a maximum of 150 adults/kg of wheat at the center of the bulk in fall, while the spatial model predicted a maximum of 800 adults/kg. The hot spot model is closer to reality than the spatial model because it simulates the effects of variable heating around the bin wall, insect heat production, and insect movement.
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