A framework to compare theoretical predictions on trait evolution in temporally varying environments under different life cycles
2013
Massol, François
Predicting the evolution of traits such as dispersal or local adaptation, in a variable environment is an important issue in theoretical evolutionary ecology. With concepts such as hard selection vs. soft selection or fine-grained vs. coarse-grained environmental variability, this issue has attracted much attention, and yet different models seldom agree on qualitative predictions about, e.g. the evolution of generalist or specialist strategies, or the occurrence of stabilizing or disruptive selection on studied traits.Here, I investigate the effect of the order of events in the life cycle on trait evolution in a spatially heterogeneous, temporally varying landscape using a Wright–Fisher island model. I first develop a methodological framework allowing for different life cycles. Then I illustrate the importance of life cycles on selection regimes by looking more closely at the evolution of local adaptation.Model results show that the occurrence of disruptive selection and bi- or tristability mainly depends on the life cycle, the convexity of the trade-off behind local adaptation, the immigration rate, and the autocorrelation in patch state. With the same forces driving the evolution of local adaptation, different life cycles induce different evolutionary outcomes. Model results highlight the importance of accounting for life cycle specificities when attempting to predict the effects of the environment on evolutionarily selected trait values, as well as the need to check the robustness of evolutionary model conclusions against modifications of the life cycle.
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