Estimates of male dispersal in Yponomeuta padellus (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae), the small ermine moth, by means of simulation
1994
Brookes, M.I. | Butlin, R.K.
A model of male dispersal is described which simulates the observed recaptures from a series of marke-release-recapture experiments. The model aims to obtain an unbiased estimate of the dispersal parameter for males of Yponomeuta padellus (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae). Five parameters, each considered to be potentially important in an analysis of the dispersal patterns of Y. padellus, were incorporated into the model. Parameter values were varied individually in a stepwise fashion to create a large number of simulated data sets. The method of maximum likelihood was used to test the goodness of fit of each simulated data set against the observed distribution of recaptures to determine the optimal combination of parameter values. Using these same parameter values, the model was then modified by examining the movement of male moths in the absence of traps to obtain as estimate of the dispersal parameters. The 'best' estimate of the dispersal parameters was found to be 2.9 m gen(-1/2), with an approximate upper confidence limit of 6.4 m gen(-1/2). The results suggest that dispersal in Y. padellus is extremely restricted relative to the area occupied by the total population and that Y. padellus is characterized by an extremely fine-scale population structure.
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