Unexploited potential to diversify monotonous crop sequencing at high latitudes

Cereal-based rotations dominate the prime production regions of Finland without any signs of noteworthy shifts towards more diverse systems. To estimate the potential for the future expansion of more diverse crop rotations we used multinomial logistic regression to model the probability that a field parcel would suit for crops other than cereals by acknowledging farmer's preferences in land allocation depending on field parcel characteristics (size, shape, slope, distance to farm center, proximity to waterway, soil type and ownership). This study covered ca. 700,000 field parcels in the prime production region and all the farm types. We identified parcels that were currently used for pure cereal rotations but were also suitable for the cultivation of more diverse crops, especially rapeseed and grain legumes as the most potential ones. There was substantial potential to shift from the current cereal rotations towards more diverse crop sequencing patterns in all farm types, but especially on pig, poultry and cereal farms, where some 18–20% of the cereal monoculture rotations could be shifted towards break crop rotations and 24–41% to diverse rotations. The diversification potential was dependent on the farm size and was higher on large farms with more suitable land for minor crops and with better logistic advantages. Hence, the ongoing increase in farm size and reduction in the number of farms could further support the transition towards more diverse crop sequencing. Diversity in both crop rotation and the agricultural landscape can be achieved simultaneously. Due to the characteristics of field parcels allocated to perennial grasslands and green-fallow rotations they were not suitable for diversifying arable crops. To enhance use of more diverse crop rotations, coherent policies and sufficient incentives are needed to encourage farmers to exploit the existing potential in a timely fashion despite the current socio-economically challenging situation that farmers are facing in Finland.