Otolith biochronology as an indicator of marine fish responses to hydroclimatic conditions and ecosystem regime shifts

Sclerochronological studies based on hard structures of marine organisms are valuable tools—both for reconstructing past climate conditions and for predicting future impacts of environmental changes on marine resources. Existing archives, which house millions of fish otoliths (ear stones) constitute an excellent basis for such research; but, they remain underutilized. The objective of this project was to identify the factors that influence the annual growth patterns of the European flounder (Platichthys flesus) based on an analysis of otolith increments. We applied linear mixed models to develop a 74-year long chronology that reflects the inter-annual variations in flounder growth rates using otolith samples collected from 1957 to 2016 in the southern part of the Baltic Sea, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to global climate change. By analyzing the widths of otolith increments we revealed the existence of common environmental factors that influence fish growth. Using a mixed modeling framework, we incorporated a recent method to identify the optimal time window for climatic factors and showed that the most significant effect of the mean Baltic Sea Index occurs during August–December, while mean sea surface temperature is most significant from April–June. Change point analysis on the developed chronology identified major alterations occurred in flounder growth in 1988, 1992 and 2006. This result is in accord with published studies on regime shifts in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. This paper reports information concerning the response of the commercially important European flounder to the changing environment that may support future ecosystem-based management of fish stocks. Moreover, the results also highlight the potential for applying biochronological techniques to identify rapid regime shifts in marine ecosystems.