Bioeconomic modeling of mixed Norway spruce—European beech stands: economic consequences of considering ecological effects

The study provides an improved bioeconomic model of mixed-species stands in order to test the economic consequences of tree species mixtures composed of spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), when the impact of mixing tree species on stand resistance against hazards is considered. We used survival probabilities of spruce in mixed- and mono-species stands derived by Griess et al. (For Ecol Manag 267:284–296, 2012) to expand an existing bioeconomic model by Knoke and Seifert (Ecol Model 210:487–498, 2008). Monte-Carlo simulations showed the highest average net present value (sum of all net revenues during one rotation period discounted by 2 %) for spruce stands with a small beech admixture of 7 % of total stems. The net present value of this mixed stand type was 8 % higher than that reached with a spruce monoculture, while risk—measured as standard deviation of net present value—was 18 % lower than that of a pure spruce stand. A mixed stand with 51 % beech led to a decrease of 23 % of the average net present value when compared to a spruce monoculture. However, the stabilizing effect of this high proportion of beech trees on spruce together with general economic diversification effects (as a result from low correlation of hazard and market risks of both tree species) reduced the standard deviation of the net present value by 55 %. Generally, an intensive species mixture in groups, with interactions between species throughout the stand, led to higher net present values and lower risks when compared to mixtures of identical proportions in large homogenous blocks without species interactions. For calculating survival probability, data from Rhineland-Palatinate were used, for modeling growth, data were based on information gained in Bavaria. It can be assumed that susceptibility toward windthrow was underestimated with respect to Bavarian conditions or growth was overestimated with respect to Rhineland-Palatinate conditions. This narrows the explanatory power of the study at hand and—once again—highlights the importance of a standardization of inventory processes all over Europe. Still the strong potential of mixing species is proven by the results. The hypothesis, derived from simpler, more traditional bioeconomic models that mixed-species stands are economically inferior to mono-species stands, could therefore be rejected. Of particular relevance to practicing foresters is the result that even mild admixtures may lead to substantial positive economic consequences. With relatively small initial investments then, a considerable increase in efficiency can be expected. This finding makes the admixture of at least small proportions interesting for the privately owned forest sector.