Modeling of land use and land cover change dynamics for future projection of the Amazon number curve
2022
da Silva Cruz, Josias | Blanco, Claudio José Cavalcante | de Oliveira Júnior, José Francisco
The hydrological parameter Curve Number (CN) was projected in the future in a 30 m spatial resolution grid for the Amazon. Through the DINAMICA EGO platform, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) were calibrated, simulated, validated, and projected for 2049 in a five-year time frame from 2009. The reclassified LULCs of 2009, 2014, and 2019 of the MapBiomas 5.0 project were used as input to DINAMICA EGO. Calibration was prepared using the 2009 and 2014 maps and the 2014 simulated map; the validation was carried out using the 2014 map, 2019, and 2019 simulated. In the calibration, the multiple window similarity values were all above 50% for the models of each basin, except for the Tapajós which was 40% in spatial resolution of 255 m. Validation values ranged between 36% and 76% at a spatial resolution of 255 m. Concerning the future projection of CN, the average CN of the Amazon region is equal to 77. The highest values of CN were found in the southern regions of the basins of the Xingu, Tapajós, Madeira, and throughout the basins of the Araguaia and Tocantins. In this Amazon region, in 2049, the areas of high CN will increase due to forest conversion to pasture/agriculture, implying larger runoff and flooding, including the urban areas, which will also expand. These floods will be intensified concerning those that already occur in the Amazon.
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