Refined shape model fitting methods for detecting various types of phenological information on major U.S. crops

Crop phenological information is a critical variable in evaluating the influence of environmental stress on the final crop yield in spatio-temporal dimensions. Although the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Cover Dynamics product (MCD12Q2) is widely used in place of crop phenological information, the definitions of MCD12Q2-derived phenological events (e.g. green-up date, dormancy date) were not completely consistent with those of crop development stages used in statistical surveys (e.g. emerged date, harvested date). It has been necessary to devise an alternative method focused on detecting continental-scale crop developmental stages using a different approach. Therefore, this study aimed to refine the Shape Model Fitting (SMF) method to improve its applicability to multiple major U.S. crops. The newly-refined SMF methods could estimate the timing of 36 crop-development stages of major U.S. crops, including corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, barley, sorghum, rice, and cotton. The newly-developed calibration process did not require any long-term field observation data, and could calibrate crop-specific phenological parameters, which were used as coefficients in estimated equation, by using only freely accessible public data. The calibration of phenological parameters was conducted in two steps. In the first step, the national common phenological parameters, referred to as X₀[base], were calibrated by using the statistical data of 2008. The SMF method coupled using X₀[base] was named the rSMF[base] method. The second step was a further calibration to gain regionally-adjusted phenological parameters for each state, referred to as X₀[local], by using additional statistical data of 2015 and 2016. The rSMF method using the X₀[local] was named the rSMF[local] method. This second calibration process improved the estimation accuracy for all tested crops. When applying the rSMF[base] method to the validation data set (2009–2014), the root mean square error (RMSE) of the rSMF[base]-derived estimates ranged from 7.1 days (corn) to 15.7 days (winter wheat). When using the rSMF[local] method, the RMSE of the rSMF[local]-derived estimates improved and ranged from 5.6 days (corn) to 12.3 days (winter wheat). The results showed that the second calibration step for the rSMF[local] method could correct the region-dependent bias error between the rSMF[base]-derived estimates and the statistical data. A comparison between the performances of the refined SMF methods and the MCD12Q2 products, indicated that both of the rSMF methods were superior to the MCD12Q2 products in estimating all phenological stages, except for the case of the rSMF[base]-derived barley emerged stages. The phenological stages for which the rSMF[local] showed the best estimation accuracy were the corn silking stage (RMSE = 4.3 days); the soybeans dropping leaves stage (RMSE = 4.9 days); the headed stages of winter wheat (RMSE = 11.1 days), barley (RMSE = 6.1 days), and sorghum (RMSE = 9.5 days); the spring-wheat harvested stage (RMSE = 5.5 days); the rice emerged stage (RMSE = 5.5 days), and the cotton squaring stage (RMSE = 6.6 days). These were more accurate than the results achieved by the MCD12Q2 products. In addition, the rSMF[local]-derived estimates were superior in terms of the reproducibility of the annual variation range, particularly of the late reproductive stages, such as the mature and harvested stages. The crop phenology maps derived from the SMF [local] method were also in good agreement with the relevant maps derived from statistics, and could reveal the characteristic spatial pattern of the key phenological stages at the continental scale with fine spatial resolution. For example, the winter-wheat headed stage clearly became later from south to north. The cotton squaring stage became earlier from the central region towards both coastal regions.