An observational equatorial Atlantic Ocean constraint on Indian monsoon precipitation projections
2021
Shamal, Marathe | Sanjay, J.
This study based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble finds that models with lesser (larger) summer mean precipitation wet bias over the equatorial eastern Atlantic (EEA) Ocean tend to project larger (lesser) increase in summer monsoon precipitation over central India (CIND) under increased greenhouse gas forcing. This excessive summer precipitation error over the equatorial Atlantic is physically consistent with the present understanding of the cold tongue error over the EEA and its teleconnection with Indian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 models. The present analysis applied an observational constraint of the EEA precipitation on this present–future emergent relationship to reduce the inter-model spread in the projected summer monsoon precipitation over CIND. This proposed emergent constraint resulted in more robust magnitude of projected increases in future summer monsoon precipitation over CIND.
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