Macroeconomic, social and environmental impacts of a circular economy up to 2050: A meta-analysis of prospective studies
2021
Aguilar-Hernandez, Glenn A. | Dias Rodrigues, João F. | Tukker, Arnold
The potential impacts on gross domestic product, employment, and carbon emissions of implementing a circular economy have been modelled at the national and multiregional levels using multiple scenarios. However, there is still no consensus on the magnitude of the impacts of a transition to a circular economy and on whether it will generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation in terms of macroeconomic, social and environmental benefits. In this paper, we review more than 300 circular economy scenarios in the time frame from 2020 to 2050. We classify each scenario according to the degree of intervention (i.e. ambitious or moderate), and perform a meta-analysis of the changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO₂ emissions generated by each circular economy scenario compared with a business-as-usual scenario. Among other results, we find that in 2030 the implementation of ambitious circular economy scenarios could generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation with marginal or incremental changes in gross domestic product (median (mdn) = 2.0%; interquartile range (IQR) = [0.4–4.6]%) and employment (mdn = 1.6%; IQR = [0.9–2.0]%), while reducing CO₂ emissions in a more substantial way (mdn = −24.6%; IQR = -[34.0–8.2]%). Furthermore, we discuss the modelling features (e.g. resource taxes, technology changes, and consumption patterns) suggested in the literature which yield the greatest changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO₂ emissions. The outcomes of this paper are relevant to the scientific community and policy makers for understanding the magnitude of the macroeconomic, social and environmental impacts of circular economy scenarios.
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