An empirical study of direct rebound effect for road freight transport in China
2014
Wang, Zhaohua | Lu, Milin
Improving energy efficiency has been considered as a major approach to reduce transportation fuel consumption, whereas its effectiveness that reduced transportation cost may lead to incremental energy use-i.e., a “direct rebound effect”. This paper provides a critical review of direct rebound effect literature, adopts a double logarithmic regression equation and a error correction model respectively to measure the magnitude of long-term and short-term direct rebound effects by 31 provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2011. The empirical study shows that: in aspect of long term, a partial rebound effect exist in Chinese road freight transportation department, and its magnitude of entire nation, eastern, central and western regions are 84%, 52%, 80% and 78%. A majority of the expected energy reduction from efficiency improvement could be offset due to the existence of rebound effect; independent policy of improving energy efficiency is not as effective as people expected. In aspect of short term, a tiny super conservation effect exists in Chinese road freight transportation department. Further investigation indicated that direct rebound effect for road freight transportation tends to decline as growth rate of urbanization decrease.
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