Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Driving Force Evolution of Cultivated Land Occupied by Urban Expansion in the Chengdu Metropolitan Area

Cultivated land is the principal land source for urban expansion. Recent large-scale urban expansion through the occupation of cultivated land has influenced regional food security and the realization of sustainable development goals. Based on data regarding the cultivated land occupied for urban construction in the Chengdu metropolitan area from 2000 to 2018, the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land occupied by urban expansion was analysed using the contribution index. Based on a model comparison, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to explore the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution path of significant driving factors. The results demonstrate that (1) the total area of cultivated land occupied by urban expansion from 2000 to 2018 was 470.528 km² and mainly concentrated in the main urban area of Chengdu City and its surrounding districts and counties. The K value continued to decline from 93.23 to 37.48, indicating that the contribution of cultivated land in urban expansion is decreasing. (2) The GWR model, with a better fitting effect, demonstrates that the significant factors that influence the cultivated land occupied by urban expansion in the study area gradually shift from population aggregation factors to food safety and the proportion of non-farming population. (3) The evolution type of the driving force is mainly dominated by continuous change, and there is significant spatial heterogeneity in the evolution path. The population density → proportion of non-farm population → grain yield → comprehensive and proportion of cultivated land → per capita fixed asset investment → comprehensive → proportion of non-farm population were typical pathways. (4) Realizing the coordination between urban system structural optimization and cultivated land protection policies in the Chengdu metropolitan area is an important way to guarantee regional food and ecological security and promote the green and high-quality development of the metropolitan area. This study can promote coordination between urban expansion and cultivated land protection in metropolitan areas and provide a reference basis for sustainable economic and social development.