Evidence of causality between economic growth and vegetation dynamics and implications for sustainability policy in Chinese cities
2020
He, Zhichao | Xiao, Lishan | Guo, Qinghai | Liu, Yong | Mao, Qizheng | Kareiva, Peter
Integrating causal considerations into the process of decision-making is beneficial to predict the outcomes of the policy interventions for sustainability. Unfortunately, this type of causal approach is still lacking in policy-making process. Here, a panel Granger causality model was employed to explore causal relationships between vegetation change and gross domestic product per capita based on data covering 285 Chinese cities between 2001 and 2015. The results show that unidirectional Granger causality runs only from economic growth to vegetation change, and not vice versa. This one-way causality indicates that China’s economic development is a driver of vegetation change, however vegetation change does not influence macroeconomic output. These results have implications for the limitations and uncertainties which are inherent in monetizing the value of ecosystem services provided by vegetation cover in which estimated monetary value cannot generate actual macroeconomic benefit. Another implication of our findings is that future sustainability policies need to address the continuity of external economic inputs to prevent negative policy outcomes caused by the economic inefficiency of ecosystem protection. The absence of a positive feedback loop between vegetation cover and economic growth could lead to a new economy–environment crisis whereby sustainability is put at ever greater risk due to a reduced motivation for pro-environmental resource (financial, human) allocations.
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