Projection of ship emissions and their impact on air quality in 2030 in Yangtze River delta, China

China has been in the implementation phase of Domestic Ship Emission Control Areas (DECAs) regulation to reduce emissions of air pollutants from ships near populated areas since 2016. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of the busiest port clusters in the world, accounting for 11% of global seaborne cargo throughput, so future improvements in shipping emission controls may still be important in this region. To assess the impact of future ship emissions on air quality of coastal areas, this study evaluates emissions reductions and air quality in 2030 for three scenarios (business as usual, stricter regulations, and aspirational policies) representing increasing levels of control compared with a base year of 2015. We projected ship emissions in the region using a bottom-up approach developed in this study and based on the historical ship automatic identification system (AIS) activity data. We then predicted air quality across the YRD region in 2030 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The annual average contributions of ship emissions to ambient PM₂.₅ would decrease by 70.9%, 80.4%, and 86.2% relative to 2015 under the three scenarios, with the largest reductions of more than 4.1 μg/m³ near Shanghai Port under the aspirational scenario. Reductions in ship emissions generally led to lower levels of PM₂.₅, particularly in most of the coastal cities in the YRD. Compared with a business-as-usual approach the aspirational scenario reduced SO₂, NOₓ and PM₂.₅ concentrations from shipping by 71.8%, 61.1% and 52.5%, respectively. It was also more effective than the stricter regulation scenario, suggesting that the requirement to use 0.1% sulfur fuel within a 100Nm DECA would have additional benefits to ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations beyond 12Nm DECA area. This study provides evidence to inform deliberations on the potential air quality benefits of future control policies for ship emissions in China.