A case-crossover analysis of the relationship of air pollution with out-of-hospital sudden unexpected death in Wake County, North Carolina (2013–2015)

Out-of-hospital sudden unexpected deaths are non-accidental deaths that occur without obvious underlying causes and may account for 10% of natural deaths before age 65. Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with all-cause (non-accidental) and cause-specific (e.g., cardiovascular) mortality, and with immediate exposures often yielding the highest magnitude risk estimates. Few studies have focused on short-term exposure to air pollution and sudden unexpected deaths. Using the University of North Carolina Sudden Unexpected Death in North Carolina population, we examine associations between short-term criteria air pollutant exposures with sudden unexpected deaths using a time-stratified case-crossover design, with data on criteria air pollutants from the Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression with air pollutant exposures scaled to roughly inter-quartile ranges; models were adjusted for average temperature and relative humidity on event day and preceding 3 days. Potential for confounding by co-pollutants were examined in two pollutant models. ORs for PM2.5 at lag day 1 were elevated (adjusted OR for 5 μg/m3 increase: 1.17 (0.98, 1.40)), and were robust to co-pollutant adjustment. Elevated odds were observed for SO2 at lag day 0, and reduced odds for O3 at lag day 0; however, these associations were somewhat attenuated toward the null (SO2) or were not robust (O3) to co-pollutant adjustment. This analysis in a racially and socioeconomically diverse cohort, with a more inclusive definition of sudden unexpected death than is typically employed offers evidence that PM2.5 may be a clinically relevant trigger of sudden unexpected deaths in susceptible individuals.