Prediction and mitigation potential of anthropogenic ammonia emissions within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, China

Large ammonia (NH₃) emissions contribute approximately 8–30% to the fine particle pollution in China and highlight the need for understanding the emission trends and mitigation effects of NH₃ in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict the NH₃ emissions and analyze the mitigation potential up to year 2040 by scenario analysis based on the established new NH₃ emission inventory from anthropogenic sources for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. The results showed that the total NH₃ emission in the BTH region was estimated at 966.14 Gg in 2016. Under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, the total NH₃ emissions in 2030 and 2040 would increase by 13% and 26% compared with 2016 levels, with average annual growth rates of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. Livestock will continue to dominate NH₃ emissions in the future, with the proportions of total emissions increasing from 57% in 2016 to 64% in 2030 and 68% in 2040. The share of the second-largest NH₃ emission source, synthetic fertilizer application, will decrease from 36% in 2016 to 31% in 2030 and 27% in 2040. Among five other sources, the largest change occurred in waste disposal, increasing notably by 3.31 times from 2016 to 2040 owing to rapid urbanization. Under the Combined Options (CO) scenario, the total NH₃ emissions could be reduced by as much as 34% by 2030 and 50% by 2040 compared with the BAU scenario, which is attributed to livestock (24% in 2030, 37% in 2040) and synthetic fertilizer application (10% in 2030, 13% in 2040), respectively. This study can give a reliable estimation of anthropogenic NH₃ emission in the BTH region during 2020–2040 and provide a valuable reference for effective mitigation measures and control strategies for policy makers.