Stream Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Sediment Concentrations Show Contrasting Long‐term Trends Associated with Agricultural Change

Stream water quality can be greatly influenced by changes in agricultural practices, but studies of long‐term dynamics are scarce. Here we describe trends over 21 yr (1994–2014) in nutrients and suspended sediments in three streams in a Midwestern US agricultural watershed. During this time, the watershed experienced substantial changes in agricultural practices, most importantly a pronounced shift from conventional to conservation tillage. In the 1990s and early 2000s, NH₄, soluble reactive P, and suspended sediment concentrations (standardized for discharge and season) each declined significantly (>4–12% per year) in at least two of the three streams (P < 0.01), whereas NO₃ changed relatively little. However, since the early 2000s, declines in NH₄ and sediment concentrations have slowed, soluble reactive P concentrations have not declined and may actually have increased, and NO₃ concentrations have declined sharply. The more recent lack of decline in soluble reactive P coincides with a plateau in the prevalence of conservation tillage and may be because of increased soil P stratification due to long‐term reduced tillage. The more recent decline in NO₃ may be due to improved efficiency of N fertilizer use, increased soil denitrification, and/or declines in atmospheric N deposition. Our study shows that stream concentrations of N, P, and sediment can respond in contrasting ways to changes in agriculture, and that temporal trends can moderate, accelerate, or reverse over decadal timescales. Management strategies must consider contrasting temporal responses of water quality indicators and may need to be adaptively adjusted at scales of years to decades. CORE IDEAS: Stream water quality in a Midwestern watershed responds to agricultural management. Conservation tillage and nutrient management appear to be major drivers of change. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment show contrasting dynamics over decadal timescales. Management plans must anticipate temporally variable trends over multiple decades.