A simulation model of population dynamics of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella

A simulation model has been developed that predicts numbers and phenology of a population of codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), in an apple orchard. The model is a general insect population model based on the interative-cohort technique. It operates at two time scales: a fine time scale (1 h) for temperature-dependent physiological processes, and a coarse time scale (1 day) for population processes. The population is divided into a specifiable number of stages, and each stage is described by four process functions, which may be of any convenient mathematical form, and may differ among stages. Each stage is divided into cohorts of individuals born or emerged on the same day, and individuals within a cohort are considered probabilistically identical. The model simulates the processes of development, transition among stages, and mortality by using probability distributions representing these processes, and incorporates the effects of pesticides on mortality of the insect. Model output was evaluated by comparison with records of pheromone trap catches of codling moths in commercial apple orchards in North Carolina. The model predicts timing of the first spring flight well, depending on the initial age distribution used. Time between peaks of numbers of adults in the model is about 15 days longer than the observed period between flight peaks in orchards. Sensitivity analysis indicates that this discrepancy may be related to differences between measured ambient temperature and tree canopy temperature. The sensitivities of numbers of insects produced by the model, and timing of peaks in numbers present were determined for each of the parameters in the model. The parameters with greatest effect on the model output were those which control the locations of developmental rate functions and survival functions on the temperature scale. In the model, pesticides had a much larger effect on numbers of adults present than records of moths caught in pheromone traps indicate actually occurred, suggesting that moths caught in traps in commercial orchards where effective pesticides are applied may be largely immigrants.