Patterns of distribution and landscape connectivity of the stag beetle in a human-dominated landscape

Urbanisation and the spread of agriculture have resulted in high levels of forest loss, habitat fragmentation and degradation in many regions of the world. In Italy, the Po Plain is the most human-dominated landscape of the country and, after decades of exploitation, old-growth forests have been reduced to small and isolated patches, often threatened by invasive tree species such as the black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia). In these habitats, the occurrence of many forest-dependent species is related to the quality and availability of suitable areas, as well as the connectivity between the remaining forested patches. Thus, recently developed species distribution models have been applied, namely the Ensemble of Small Models (ESMs), to identify areas of occurrence for a rare and protected saproxylic beetle species, the stag beetle Lucanus cervus and the inverse of the resulting distribution maps as resistance maps have been used to estimate landscape connectivity for this species. Response curves suggested that the probability of the stag beetle occurrence increased with habitat diversity, grassland coverage and native forests, especially oak and mixed forests. The other forest coverage, such as those with black locust, beech, chestnut and black cherry, showed a unimodal relationship peaking approximately at 70%, 8%, 55% and 13% respectively. The stag beetle occurrence was unimodal related to distance to watercourses and distance to human settlements and negatively related to shrub-lands, croplands, sparse and dense human settlements. Landscape connectivity showed similar patterns, except for oak forest coverage, which showed a negative relationship to landscape connectivity. In conclusion, stag beetles can persist in a human dominated landscape only in the presence of forest patches, including those with black locust trees. It is also inferred that ESMs may be suitable for modelling rare species distributions and estimating landscape connectivity to promote species conservation.