Integrated assessment of flood and drought hazards for current and future climate in a tributary of the Mekong river basin
2023
Penny, Jessica | Khadka, Dibesh | Babel, Mukand | Alves, Priscila | Djordjević, Slobodan | Chen, Albert S. | Loc, Ho Huu
Projecting floods and droughts characteristics under climate change is important to formulate an integrative management plan and enhance resiliency of society. However, studies that provide the integration of floods-drought hazards are scarce within literature. This study assessed flood and drought hazards separately and together for future climate in the Mun River basin, a tributary of the Mekong river. A non-modelling and multi-variate approach was used to assess flood and drought hazard respectively. Climate model ensemble suggests that the area under ‘high’ and ‘very high’ drought hazard level will increase from 27% and 4% during baseline period (1981–2010) to 43% and 37%, respectively, during near-future period (2021–2050). Similarly, an increase in ‘high’ and ‘very high’ flood hazard from 11% and 22% during baseline period to 16% and 24% during near-future period is projected. When both hazards are considered together, the total hazard is projected to increase by 155% in the near-future period. 76% of the catchment during the near future period will have combined hazard level from ‘medium’ to ‘very high’ compared to the 30% during the baseline period. The research presents a grim outlook on for the basin, with the area at risk from both hydro-meteorological hazards.
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