Potential alternative land covers on Earth
2024
Bastin, Jean-François | Latte, Nicolas | Garcia, Claude | Berzaghi, Fabio | Maestre, Fernando | Svenning, Jens-Christian | Bogaert, Jan | Assede, Emeline | Barima, Sabas | Besisa, Timothée | Bouchoms, Samuel | de Haulleville, Thalès | de Lame, Hugo | Depoortere, Pauline | Dufrêne, Marc | Dijke, Anne Hoek van | Lejeune, Philippe | Lhoest, Simon | Mahy, Grégory | Messier, Christian | Mollicone, Danilo | Peaucelle, Marc | Plumacker, Antoine | Quétier, Fabien | Rakotondrasoa, Olivia | Ramalason, Felana Nantenaina | Sambieni, Raoul | Sparrow, Ben | Strammer, Harold | Tarelkin, Yegor | Sikuzani, Yannick Useni | Vander Linden, Arthur
Abstract Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is crucial to halting the collapse of life on Earth. To guide global conservation and restoration efforts, we present a comprehensive map, encompassing all ecosystems, revealing the Earth's potential tree, short vegetation, and bareground cover accounting for various land management scenarios such as prescribed fire frequency and trophic rewilding. Our analysis indicates that 43% (5678 Mha) of lands could be covered by trees, 39% (5179 Mha) by shrubs and grasses, and 18% (2347 Mha) by bareground. Approximately 1070 Mha can support alternative land covers, emphasizing the need to consider diverse outcomes in landscape restoration. Our findings also suggest that management scenarios may significantly outweigh the average impact of climate change on resulting land covers, underscoring decision-makers' responsibility for nature’s recovery and a sustainable future.
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