Multi-model evaluation of phenology prediction for wheat in Australia
2021
Wallach, Daniel | Palosuo, Taru | Thorburn, Peter | Hochman, Zvi | Andrianasolo, Fety | Asseng, Senthold | Basso, Bruno | Buis, Samuel | Crout, Neil | Dumont, Benjamin | Ferrise, Roberto | Gaiser, Thomas | Gayler, Sebastian | Hiremath, Santosh | Hoek, Steven | Horan, Heidi | Hoogenboom, Gerrit | Huang, Mingxia | Jabloun, Mohamed | Jansson, Per-Erik | Jing, Qi | Justes, Eric | Kersebaum, Kurt Christian | Launay, Marie | Lewan, Elisabet | Luo, Qunying | Maestrini, Bernardo | Moriondo, Marco | Olesen, Jørgen Eivind | Padovan, Gloria | Poyda, Arne | Priesack, Eckart | Pullens, Johannes Wilhelmus Maria | Qian, Budong | Schütze, Niels | Shelia, Vakhtang | Souissi, Amir | Specka, Xenia | Kumar Srivastava, Amit | Stella, Tommaso | Streck, Thilo | Trombi, Giacomo | Wallor, Evelyn | Wang, Jing | Weber, Tobias K.D. | Weihermüller, Lutz | de Wit, Allard | Wöhling, Thomas | Xiao, Liujun | Zhao, Chuang | Zhu, Yan | Seidel, Sabine | AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR) ; Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Ecole d'Ingénieurs de Purpan (INP - PURPAN) ; Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE) | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | ARVALIS - Institut du Végétal [Boigneville] ; ARVALIS - Institut du végétal [Paris] | University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE) ; Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS) ; University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | Michigan State University [East Lansing] ; Michigan State University System | DEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY USA ; Partenaires IRSTEA ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) | Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH) ; Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | University of Nottingham, UK (UON) | Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Faculté universitaire des sciences agronomiques de Gembloux] ([FUSAGx]) ; Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège) | Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro‐Bio Tech ; Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège) | Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence (UniFI) | Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI) ; Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence (UniFI) | Universität Bonn = University of Bonn | Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES) ; Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | Universität Hohenheim = University of Hohenheim | Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Soil Biology Section ; Universität Hohenheim = University of Hohenheim | Aalto University School of Science and Technology [Aalto, Finland] | Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | CSIRO Agriculture and Food (CSIRO AF) ; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | Food Systems Institute [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS) ; Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS) ; University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | China Agriculture University [Beijing] | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences ; China Agricultural University (CAU) | KTH Royal Institute of Technology [Stockholm] (KTH) | Agriculture and Agri-Food (AAFC) | Ottawa Research and Development Center | Agrosystèmes Biodiversifiés (UMR ABSys) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM) ; Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe) | Agroclim (AGROCLIM) ; Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences = Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU) | Hillridge Technology Pty Ltd | Institute for BioEconomy [Sesto Fiorentino] (IBE | CNR) ; National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) | Aarhus University [Aarhus] | Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel = Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel = Université Christian-Albrechts de Kiel (CAU) | Institute of Crop Science and Plant Breeding ; Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel = Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel = Université Christian-Albrechts de Kiel (CAU) | Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU) | German Res Ctr Environm Hlth ; Partenaires INRAE | Deutsches Forschungszentrum für Gesundheit und Umwelt (GmbH) | Technische Universität Dresden = Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden) | Université de Carthage (Tunisie) = University of Carthage (UCAR) | Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique de Tunisie (INRAT) | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences ; China Agricultural University (CAU) | Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Jülich | Jülich Research Centre (FZJ) ; Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association | Institute of Bio- and Geosciences [Jülich] (IBG) ; Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Jülich | Jülich Research Centre (FZJ) ; Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association | Lincoln Agritech Ltd | Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU) | National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production ; Nanjing Agricutural University | This work was in part supported by the Collaborative Research Center 1253 CAMPOS (Project 7: Stochastic Modelling Framework), funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG, Grant Agreement SFB 1253/1 2017), the Academy of Finland through projects AI-CropPro (316172 and 315896) and DivCSA (316215) and Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) through a strategic project BoostIA, the BonaRes projects "Soil3" (BOMA 03037514) and "I4S" (031B0513I) of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany, the German Research Foundation (DFG) under Germany's Excellence Strategy -EXC 2070 -390732324, the project BiomassWeb of the GlobeE programme (Grant number: FKZ031A258B) funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, Germany), the EU funded SustEs project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), the INRAE ACCAF metaprogramme, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in the framework of the funding measure "Soil as a Sustainable Resource for the Bioeconomy -BonaRes", project "BonaRes (Module B): BonaRes Centre for Soil Research, subproject B" (grant 031B0511B), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFD0300205), the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (31725020), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), the 111 project (B16026), and China Scholarship Council, the Agriculture and AgriFood Canada's Project 1387 under the Canadian Agricultural Partnership, the DFG Research Unit FOR 1695 `Agricultural Landscapes under Global Climate Change -Processes and Feedbacks on a Regional Scale, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (award no. 2015-68007-23133) and USDA/NIFA HATCH grant N. MCL02368, the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0300105), The Broadacre Agriculture Initiative, a research partnership between University of Southern Queensland and the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, the JPI FACCE MACSUR2 project, funded by the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food, and Forestry Policies (D.M. 24064/7303/15 of 26/Nov/2015). The field work was jointly funded by CSIRO and the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) under the "Adding Value to GRDC's National Variety Trial Network" project (CSA00027). The order in which the donors are listed is arbitrary.
International audience
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Inglés. Highlights:• A large multi-model study predicting wheat phenology in Australia was performed.• Calibration and evaluation datasets were independently drawn from the same population.• Mean absolute prediction error ranged from 6 to 20 days (median 9 days).• Two thirds of modeling groups predicted better than a simple temperature sum.• Variability between groups using the same model structure was substantial.Predicting wheat phenology is important for cultivar selection, for effective crop management and provides a baseline for evaluating the effects of global change. Evaluating how well crop phenology can be predicted is therefore of major interest. Twenty-eight wheat modeling groups participated in this evaluation. Our target population was wheat fields in the major wheat growing regions of Australia under current climatic conditions and with current local management practices. The environments used for calibration and for evaluation were both sampled from this same target population. The calibration and evaluation environments had neither sites nor years in common, so this is a rigorous evaluation of the ability of modeling groups to predict phenology for new sites and weather conditions. Mean absolute error (MAE) for the evaluation environments, averaged over predictions of three phenological stages and over modeling groups, was 9 days, with a range from 6 to 20 days. Predictions using the multi-modeling group mean and median had prediction errors nearly as small as the best modeling group. About two thirds of the modeling groups performed better than a simple but relevant benchmark, which predicts phenology by assuming a constant temperature sum for each development stage. The added complexity of crop models beyond just the effect of temperature was thus justified in most cases. There was substantial variability between modeling groups using the same model structure, which implies that model improvement could be achieved not only by improving model structure, but also by improving parameter values, and in particular by improving calibration techniques.
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Palabras clave de AGROVOC
Información bibliográfica
Este registro bibliográfico ha sido proporcionado por Institut national de la recherche agronomique