A Spatio-temporal Model of African Animal Trypanosomosis Risk
2015
Dicko, Ahmadou H. | Percoma, Lassane | Sow, Adama | Adam, Yahaya | Mahama, Charles | Sidibé, Issa | Dayo, Guiguigbaza-Kossigan | Thévenon, Sophie | Fonta, William | Sanfo, Safietou | Djiteye, Aligui | Salou, Ernest | Djohan, Vincent | Cecchi, Giuliano | Bouyer, Jérémy | West African Science Service in Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) ; Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal] (UCAD) | The Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC) | Ecole Inter-États des Sciences et Médecine Vétérinaires de Dakar (EISMV) | Veterinary Services Department of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture | Centre international de recherche-développement sur l'élevage en zone sub-humide (CIRDES) | Veterinary Services Department of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (PATTEC) | Interactions hôtes-vecteurs-parasites-environnement dans les maladies tropicales négligées dues aux trypanosomatides (UMR INTERTRYP) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) ; Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université de Bordeaux (UB) | West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) | Direction Nationale des Services Vétérinaires, Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC) | Université Nazi Boni (Bobo-Dioulasso) (UNB) | National Institute of Public Health ; Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny [Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire] (UFHB) | FAO Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa [Addis Ababa, Ethiopie] (FAO) ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO) | Contrôle des maladies animales exotiques et émergentes (UMR CMAEE) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | Laboratoire National d'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires [Dakar] (LNERV) ; Institut sénégalais de recherches agricoles [Dakar] (ISRA) | Government of Italy through the FAO project "Improving food security in sub-Saharan Africa by supporting the progressive reduction of tsetse-transmitted trypanosomosis in the framework of NEPAD" [GTFS/RAF/474/ITA ]
[b]Background[/b]African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous risk of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT risk both in space and time, spatio-temporal models allowing predictions of it are lacking.[b]Methodology/Principal Findings[/b]We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign) national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a "one layer-one model" approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This risk index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r(2) = 67%), showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r(2) = 22%) aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r(2) = 2%).[b]Conclusions/Significance[/b]The presented spatio-temporal model provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT risk in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient risk management of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases.
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