Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability
2016
Ruane, Alex C. | Hudson, Nicholas I. | Asseng, Senthold | Camarrano, Davide | Ewert, Frank | Martre, Pierre | Boote, Kenneth J. | Thorburn, Peter J. | Aggarwal, Pramod K. | Angulo, Carlos | Basso, Bruno | Bertuzzi, Patrick | Biernath, Christian | Brisson, Nadine | Challinor, Andrew J. | Doltra, Jordi | Gayler, Sebastian | Goldberg, Richard | Grant, Robert F. | Heng, Lee | Hooker, Josh | Hunt, Leslie A. | Ingwersen, Joachim | Izaurralde, Roberto C. | Kersebaum, Kurt Christian | Kumar, Soora Naresh | Müller, Christoph | Nendel, Claas | O'Leary, Garry | Olesen, Jørgen E. | Osborne, Tom M. | Palosuo, Taru | Priesack, Eckart | Ripoche, Dominique | Rötter, Reimund P. | Semenov, Mikhail A. | Shcherbak, Iurii | Steduto, Pasquale | Stöckle, Claudio O. | Stratonovitch, Pierre | Streck, Thilo | Supit, Iwan | Tao, Fulu | Travasso, Maria | Waha, Katharina | Wallach, Daniel | White, Jeffrey W. | Wolf, Joost | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) | Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR) ; Columbia University [New York] | Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE) ; Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS) ; University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | The James Hutton Institute | Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] ; Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) ; Leibniz Association = Leibniz Gemeinschaft = Wissenschaftsgemeinschaft Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz (LG / WGL) | Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP) | Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute ; International Water Management Institute | Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station ; Michigan State University [East Lansing] ; Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System | Agroclim (AGROCLIM) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology ; Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU) | Agronomie ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech | Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS) ; School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE) ; University of Leeds-University of Leeds | CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ; International Center for Tropical Agriculture | Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre | Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation ; Universität Hohenheim = University of Hohenheim | Department of Renewable Resources ; University of Alberta | International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA) | School of Agriculture, Policy and Development ; University of Reading (UOR) | Department of Plant Agriculture ; University of Guelph [Guelf, Ontario, Canada] | Department of Geographical Sciences ; University of Maryland [College Park] (UMD) ; University System of Maryland-University System of Maryland | Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA) ; Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) | Landscape & Water Sciences ; Department of Environment of Victoria | Department of Agroecology ; Aarhus University [Aarhus] | National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology ; University of Reading (UOR) | Environmental Impacts Group ; Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE) | Georg-August-University of Göttingen = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen | Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) | Institute for Future Environments ; Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT) | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in France (FAO) ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) | Biological Systems Engineering ; Washington State University (WSU) | Earth System Science-Climate Change and Adaptive Land-use and Water Management ; Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS) | Institute for Climate and Water [Castelnar] ; Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) | AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse) | USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ] (USDA) ; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) | Plant Production Systems ; Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR); JPI FACCE
We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and the Netherlands as part of the Agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.
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