Uncertainty of wheat water use: simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2
2016
Cammarano, Davide | Rotter, Reimund P. | Asseng, Senthold | Ewert, Frank | Wallach, Daniel | Martre, Pierre | Hatfield, Jerry L. | Jones, James W. | Rosenzweig, Cynthia | Ruane, Alex C. | Boote, Kenneth J. | Thorburn, Peter J. | Kersebaum, Kurt Christian | Aggarwal, Pramod K. | Angulo, Carlos | Basso, Bruno | Bertuzzi, Patrick | Biernath, Christian | Brisson, Nadine | Challinor, Andrew J. | Doltra, Jordi | Gayler, Sebastian | Goldberg, Richie | Heng, Lee | Hooker, Josh | Hunt, Leslie A. | Ingwersen, Joachim | Izaurralde, Roberto C. | Müller, Christoph | Kumar, Soora Naresh | Nendel, Claas | O'Leary, Garry J. | Olesen, Jorgen E. | Osborne, Tom M. | Palosuo, Taru | Priesack, Eckart | Ripoche, Dominique | Semenov, Mikhail A. | Shcherbak, Iurii | Steduto, Pasquale | Stöckle, Claudio O. | Stratonovitch, Pierre | Streck, Thilo | Supit, Iwan | Tao, Fulu | Travasso, Maria | Waha, Katharina | White, Jeffrey W. | Wolf, Joost | Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE) ; Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS) ; University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | The James Hutton Institute | Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE) | Department of Crop Sciences ; Georg-August-University of Göttingen = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) ; Leibniz Association = Leibniz Gemeinschaft = Wissenschaftsgemeinschaft Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz (LG / WGL) | Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES) ; Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse) | Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) | Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP) | National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment | National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) | Ecosystem sciences ; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) | Michigan State University [East Lansing] ; Michigan State University System | Agroclim (AGROCLIM) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU) | Agronomie ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech | University of Leeds | Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA) | Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster ; Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = University of Tübingen | International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA) | European Commission | School of Agriculture, Policy and Development ; University of Reading (UOR) | Department of Plant Agriculture ; University of Guelph [Guelf, Ontario, Canada] | Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation ; Universität Hohenheim = University of Hohenheim | University of Maryland [College Park] (UMD) ; University System of Maryland | Texas A and M AgriLife Research ; Texas A&M University System | Leibniz Association = Leibniz Gemeinschaft = Wissenschaftsgemeinschaft Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz (LG / WGL) | Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA) ; Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) | Landscape & Water Sciences ; Department of Environment of Victoria | Department of Agroecology ; Aarhus University [Aarhus] | Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England ; Partenaires INRAE | Computational and Systems Biology Department ; Rothamsted Research ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) | Washington State University (WSU) | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in France (FAO) ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) | Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS) | Institute for Climate and Water ; Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) | CSIRO, Agr, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia ; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany ; Partenaires INRAE | United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) | Plant Production Systems ; Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR)
International audience
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Inglés. Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (T-eff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.
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