ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios
2022
Pastor, Amandine | Nunes, Joao Pedro | Ciampalini, Rossano | Bahri, Haithem | Annabi, Mohamed | Chikhaoui, Mohamed | Crabit, Armand | Follain, Stéphane | Keizer, Jan Jacob | Latron, Jérôme | Licciardello, Feliciana | Marien, Laurène | Mekki, Insaf | Moreno de las Heras, Mariano | Molina, Antonio | Naimi, Mustapha | Sabir, Mohamed | Valente, Sandra | Raclot, Damien | Laboratoire d'étude des Interactions Sol - Agrosystème - Hydrosystème (UMR LISAH) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Technologies et Méthodes pour les Agricultures de demain (UMR ITAP) ; Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Centre for Ecology - Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c) ; Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon = Université de Lisbonne (ULISBOA) | Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence (UniFI) | Université de Carthage (Tunisie) = University of Carthage (UCAR) | Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II) | Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages (UMR G-EAU) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Agroécologie [Dijon] ; Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Dijon ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Universidade de Aveiro = University of Aveiro | Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA) ; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain] (CSIC) | Università degli studi di Catania = University of Catania (Unict) | University King Juan Carlos [Madrid] | Universitat de Barcelona (UB) | Universitat Politècnica de València = Universitad Politecnica de Valencia = Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) | Ecole Nationale Forestière d'Ingénieurs du Maroc [Salé] (ENFI) | Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies [Aveiro] (CESAM) ; Universidade de Aveiro = University of Aveiro
International audience
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Inglés. Scenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt to the future. In this study, we present a new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This methodology aims to develop plausible and contrasting land use and management (LUM) scenarios, useful to explore how LUM (e.g. soil and water conservation techniques) may affect ecosystem services under global change in a wide range of environments. ScenaLand is a method for constructing narrative and spatially explicit land use scenarios that are useful for end-users and impact modellers. This method is innovative because it merges literature and expert knowledge, and its low data requirement makes it easy to be implemented in the context of inter-site comparison, including global change projections. ScenaLand was developed and tested on six different Mediterranean agroecological and socioeconomic contexts during the MASCC research project (Mediterranean agricultural soil conservation under global change). The method first highlights the socioeconomic trends of each study site including emerging trends such as new government laws, LUM techniques through a qualitative survey addressed to local experts. Then, the method includes a ranking of driving factors, a matrix about land use evolution, and soil and water conservation techniques. ScenaLand also includes a framework to develop narratives along with two priority axes (contextualized to environmental protection vs. land productivity in this study). In the context of this research project, four contrasting scenarios are proposed: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (market-oriented), S3 (environmental protection), and S4 (sustainable). Land use maps are then built with the creation of LUM allocation rules based on agroecological zoning. ScenaLand resulted in a robust and easy method to apply with the creation of 24 contrasted scenarios. These scenarios come not only with narratives but also with spatially explicit maps that are potentially used by impact modellers and other end-users. The last part of our study discusses the way the method can be implemented including a comparison between sites and the possibilities to implement ScenaLand in other contexts.
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