Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species
2021
Pouteau, Robin | Biurrun, Idoia | Brunel, Caroline | Chytrý, Milan | Dawson, Wayne | Essl, Franz | Fristoe, Trevor | Haveman, Rense | Hobohm, Carsten | Jansen, Florian | Kreft, Holger | Lenoir, Jonathan, Roger Michel Henri | Lenzner, Bernd | Meyer, Carsten | Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold | Pergl, Jan | Pyšek, Petr | Svenning, Jens-Christian | Thuiller, Wilfried | Weigelt, Patrick | Wohlgemuth, Thomas | Yang, Qiang | van Kleunen, Mark | Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Occitanie])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) | Universidad del País Vasco [Espainia] / Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea [España] = University of the Basque Country [Spain] = Université du pays basque [Espagne] (UPV / EHU) | Taizhou University (TU) | Plant Health Institute of Montpellier (UMR PHIM) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Masaryk University [Brno] = Masarykova univerzita [Brno] = Université Masaryk [Brno] (MU / MUNI) | Durham University | Universität Wien = University of Vienna | University of Konstanz | Central Government Real Estate Agency | Europa-Universität Flensburg | University of Rostock = Universität Rostock | Georg-August-University of Göttingen = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen | Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés - UMR CNRS 7058 UPJV (EDYSAN) ; Université de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) | Leipzig University / Universität Leipzig | Aarhus University [Aarhus] | Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences (IB / CAS) ; Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS) | Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic] (UK) | Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA) ; Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (Fédération OSUG)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) | Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
International audience
Mostrar más [+] Menos [-]Inglés. Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location Global. Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges. Results: We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions: While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.
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