Potential distribution modeling of three alpine plants with Maxent under current and 2070 future climate conditions

Based on two climate models (CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) and under two scenarios of different CO2 emissions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the future (2070) described in the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5, IPCC), we have modeled the potential distribution of three high mountain species distributed disjunctively within two alpine mountain ranges of southwestern Europe, such as the Alps and the Pyrenees. These plants are strongly adapted to the difficult conditions of these habitats, especially their vegetative period and distribution ranges linked to the snow cover melting, low temperatures and complex topography characteristic of each mountain system. Effects of global warming are so interesting to study in these environments due to their condition of vulnerability and high risk of species habitat loss in the future. These effects on the three species potential distributions have been reflected as a significant reduction of their favourable areas in the future, especially in the Pyrenees, together with an expected displacement upslope in their altitudinal range. Due to predicted changes in the rainfall regime, we also have seen a considerable movement towards eastern areas across the alpine mountain range projected by the modeling approach as regions more similar to those estimated in the present. This work approaches the possible impact of warming on the distributions of high mountain plants, especially in Mediterranean systems, such as the Pyrenees and Maritime Alps; and provides new information about possible consequences of predicted aridity conditions for these Mediterranean alpine regions.

Peer reviewed