Land use change transitions in the state of Puebla (1980-2016), Mexico | Transiciones del cambio de uso de suelo en el estado de Puebla (1980-2016), México

Inglés. Changes in land use threaten the sustainability of the planet, as these undermine the ability of global ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain forest and freshwater resources, and regulate climate and air quality. This unfavorable scenario for the food system demands efficient land-use allocation. To this end, it is essential for the actors in the territories to have a clear understanding of the gains and losses associated with the various land-use changes. In line with the above, the present work analyzed the transitions in land use change in the state of Puebla that occurred from 1980 to 2016, to understand the spatial dynamics and identify the most important patterns of land-use change that characterize this territory. To this end, we processed the cartographic information contained in the Land and Vegetation Use Charts, Series I, II, III, IV, V, and VI, issued by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico. From the cartographic information obtained, we delimited and calculated the area occupied by the state and its economic regions, differentiating the area of different types of natural vegetation and other land uses (this procedure was carried out for the six series). The values of the area of the different land uses were used to perform several calculations that allowed us to analyze the changes in the original land uses and their transitions, as well as calculate the intensity of agricultural land-use change (ICSA, after its name in Spanish). The results obtained indicate that Puebla has undergone a 21% decrease in its natural vegetation cover over the past 36 years, which is mainly explained by the conversion of forest area to agricultural activities or turning into disturbed vegetation. The regions with the heaviest forest losses are the Mixteca, the Sierra Norte, and Atlixco-Valle de Matamoros. In general, the state displays important spatial dynamics. In net terms, considering the losses and gains in its area, the most expanded land uses were, in order of magnitude: urban (1523%), bare soil (146%), and water bodies (83%). In contrast, those that declined in area were temperate and tropical forests, with losses in exceess of 30%. On the other hand, there have been transitions in land-use change in about one-third of the state's surface area. In this way, 47 transitions were identified, with the most important losses for the magnitude of the loss in area are pastures and natural grasslands, with 31% and 18% of their area, respectively, converted to agriculture, in addition to the conversion of forests to disturbed vegetation, with the former losing 21% of its original area in this transition. With regard to the behavior of land use by economic region, the land-use maps show that the transition from livestock to agricultural use has prevailed in the northern part of the state; in the central-western part, from agricultural to urban use; in the southwest, from forest to disturbed vegetation; and in the southeast region, from forest to livestock use. In the particular case of the area covered by agriculture, ICSA values indicate that the Angelopolis and Atlixco regions have experienced a trend to the conversion from this use to urban development; in contrast, the Tehuacán-Sierra Negra and Serdán-Valles Centrales regions show an increasing trend of conversion to agriculture. Finally, it is concluded that the different changes of land use in Puebla are highly influenced by the proximity to urban areas, where the regions that are farthest away from the main cities maintain the greatest dynamism of agricultural and livestock activities. If the current trend of urban growth and agricultural activities continue, these can exacerbate unsustainable land uses. These findings should be considered in government development plans and programs to optimize land use in the state of Puebla.

Español; castellano. El objetivo del trabajo es analizar las transiciones en el cambio de uso de suelo en el estado de Puebla para el periodo de 1980 a 2016. Se utilizó información de bases de datos geográficas que muestran el uso del suelo para siete regiones económicas. Para el análisis de las transiciones del uso de suelo se calculó la tasa de cambio, se construyeron las matrices de transición, se generaron las matrices de probabilidad de cambio y se elaboró la cartografía de uso de suelo para los dos periodos estudiados. Los resultados obtenidos indican que en los últimos 36 años Puebla presenta una disminución del 21% de su cubierta vegetal, explicada primordialmente por la reducción de su superficie forestal y por el incremento de las zonas urbanas. Los mapas de uso de suelo elaborados muestran que en la parte norte del estado ha predominado la transición del uso de suelo ganadero a uso agrícola, en la parte centro-oeste de uso agrícola a uso urbano, en el suroeste de bosque a vegetación perturbada y en el sureste se observa primordialmente un tránsito del bosque a uso ganadero. Se concluye que los diferentes cambios del uso de suelo en Puebla están altamente influenciados por la cercanía a las zonas urbanas, siendo las regiones alejadas a las principales ciudades las que mantienen mayor dinamismo de la actividad agrícola y pecuaria. Estos resultados deben tomarse en cuenta en los planes de desarrollo y programas de gobierno, para un mejor aprovechamiento del territorio estatal.