Credit Growth in Emerging Europe : A Cause for Stability Concerns?

Skamnelos, Ilias; Sirtaine, Sophie

Credit Growth in Emerging Europe : A Cause for Stability Concerns?

2007

Skamnelos, Ilias | Sirtaine, Sophie

High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the "old" Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.

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accounting auditing balance sheets bank loans bankruptcy benchmarks capital allocation debt devaluation early warning systems economic growth economics emu exports financial institutions fiscal policies growth rate guidelines housing inflation interest rates liquidity migration mortgages privatization productivity profitability public debt risk factors risk management roe savings unemployment volatility vulnerability western europe

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World Bank, Washington, DC

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Financial stability; Stock markets; Accounting standards; Moral hazard; Real interest rate; Capital adequacy; Car; Credit boom; Credit origination; Gdp per capita; Disinflation; Financial systems; Contract enforcement; Insolvency; Financial distress; Contagion; Disposable income; Trading; Financial crisis; Macroeconomic conditions; Bank assets; Capital adequacy ratios; Bankruptcy procedures; Real estate loans; Aggregate demand; Reserve ratios; International reserves; Forecasts; Portfolio; Wealth; Money supply; Wage inflation; Banking regulation; Banking sector; Portfolios; Foreign entry; Foreign exchange; Currency appreciation; Government policies; Loan classification; Real income; Public expenditures; Capital markets; Capital controls; Financial liberalization; Affiliated organizations; Financial crises; Financial sector; Asset prices; Foreign banks; Credit risk; Deficits; Overvaluation; Central banks; Credit booms; Inefficiency; Financial deepening; Capital flows; Mortgage loans; Exchange rates; Fiscal deficits; Supervisory agencies; Financial markets; Corporate sector; Statements; Bank lending; Asset price bubbles; Credit practices; Budget deficits; Labor costs; Banking crisis; Bank risk; Foreign currency; Labor markets; Price inflation; Bank capital; Real gdp; Competitiveness; Financial contagion; Borrowing; Probability of default; Economic performance

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CC BY 3.0 IGO, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/, World Bank

En AGRIS desde: 2024-10-18

Fecha de modificación: 2025-10-25

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DOI http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7959264/credit-growth-emerging-europe-cause-stability-concerns https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7472

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Credit Growth in Emerging Europe : A Cause for Stability Concerns?

2007

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