Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil : The Impact of the Doha Round

Lay, Jann; Bussolo, Maurizio; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil : The Impact of the Doha Round

2006

Lay, Jann | Bussolo, Maurizio | van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

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agrarian reform agricultural commodities agricultural production agricultural productivity agricultural sector agricultural workers agriculture developing countries domestic markets economic development economic trends elasticity equations equilibrium exports extreme poverty fiscal policies fixed costs gender growth rate household income household surveys human capital income income distribution income generation informal sector international trade land ownership land reform livestock natural resources occupation poverty reduction poverty traps primary education production technology productivity public investment regression analysis rural areas rural poor rural population rural poverty small farms structural adjustment structural change trade liberalization unemployment urban areas urban poor urban poverty value added wage rate wages workers wto

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World Bank, Washington, DC

Otras materias

Micro model; Employment opportunities; Low share; Per capita income; Reform program; Trade reforms; Micro data; Poverty lines; Unequal distribution; Agricultural wages; Cash transfer program; Trade policy; Per capita incomes; Agricultural activities; Domestic prices; High inequality countries; On-the-job training; Macroeconomic environment; Productivity growth; Elasticity of substitution; Employment levels; Factor markets; Multilateral trade; Adverse impact; Rising unemployment; Unskilled labor; Average growth rate; Distributional dynamics; Average growth; Wage rates; Exogenous variables; Jobs; Labor movements; Medium term; Labor market segmentation; Unskilled workers; Positive externalities; Significant reduction; Household heads; Negative externalities; Marginal effect; Finding employment; Expected wages; Poverty reduction strategies; Rural livelihoods; Skilled workers; Endogenous variables; Headcount ratio; Agricultural incomes; Poverty incidence; Labor demand; Employment histories; Agricultural exports; Explanatory variables; Negative effect; Total poverty; Production process; Capital accumulation; Income gains; Income distributions; Employment in agriculture; Risk aversion; Agricultural sectors; Household enterprise; Labor markets; Incomes from agriculture; Deregulation; Distributional impact; Density function; Skill upgrading; Impact on poverty reduction; Poverty reducing; Labor productivity; Relative incomes; Estimation method; Wage differential; Changes in poverty; Labor market; Livestock sector; Landowner; Policy research; Labor supplies; Wage differentials; Labor supply; Schooling; Agricultural output; Unemployment rates; Household survey; Growth rates; Error term; Real gdp; Poverty rates; Chronic poverty; Self-employment; Average wage; Government expenditures; Factor prices; High inequality; Farming activities; Family members; Total factor productivity; Worker; Estimation results; Earning; Relative prices; Technological progress; Agricultural employment; Benchmark; Educational levels; High poverty; Export taxes; Household head; Unemployed; Utility function; Drivers; Agricultural performance

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CC BY 3.0 IGO, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/, World Bank

En AGRIS desde: 2024-10-18

Fecha de modificación: 2025-04-17

Formato: Dublin Core

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