Demand Forecasting Errors

Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James

Demand Forecasting Errors

2005

Mackie, Peter | Nellthorp, John | Laird, James

Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand forecasts (Section 1). Following that introductory section the error types are described in more detail: measurement error (Section 2), model specification error (Section 3) and External or Exogenous Errors (Section 4). The final section presents a discussion on how to manage demand forecasting errors (Section 5).

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area construction cost benefit analysis elasticity elasticity of demand geographic information systems growth rate income international trade land use origin ports roads route speed statistical analysis surveying traffic trains transport trucks vehicles walking

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Editorial

World Bank, Washington, DC

Otras materias

Transport economics; Buses; Interpolation; Transport investment; Cars; Growth potential; Traffic growth; Interaction between roads; Economic appraisal; Public transport passenger; Traffic flows; Passengers; Walking time; Journey; Private road traffic; Passenger; Vehicle fleets; Public transport service; Route choice; Transport operators; Fare levels; Peak periods; Freight traffic; Vehicle ownership; Interface; Fuel; Transport services; Public transport; Bus stops; Transport sector; Routes; Light rail; Forecasts; Travellers; Highways; Fares; Passenger volumes; Extrapolation; Travel time; Public transport fares; Fuel price; Traffic flow; Framework; Road traffic; Transport projects; Generated traffic; Dependency; Freight; Value of time; Road network; Transport system; Road haulage; Car ownership; Congestion; Base year; Forecasting models; Drivers; Geographic information; Road tolls; Bus; Traffic patterns; Aggregation; Travel times; Gdp; Destination; Transport policy

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CC BY 3.0 IGO, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/, World Bank

En AGRIS desde: 2024-10-18

Fecha de modificación: 2025-10-25

Formato: Dublin Core

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DOI http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6376813/demand-forecasting-errors https://hdl.handle.net/10986/11797

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Demand Forecasting Errors

2005

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