Will a rising sea sink some estuarine wetland ecosystems?
2016
Grenfell, Suzanne Elaine | Callaway, Ruth M. | Grenfell, Michael Cyril
Sea-level rise associated with climate change presents a major challenge to plant diversity and ecosystem service provision in coastal wetlands. In this study, we investigate the effect of sea-level rise on benthos, vegetation, and ecosystem diversity in a tidal wetland in west Wales, the UK. Present relationships between plant communities and environmental variables were investigated through 50 plots at which vegetation (species and coverage), hydrological (surface or groundwater depth, conductivity) and soil (matrix chroma, presence or absence of mottles, organic content, particle size) data were collected. Benthic communities were sampled at intervals along a continuum from saline to freshwater. To ascertain future changes to the wetlands' hydrology, a GIS-based empirical model was developed. Using a LiDAR derived land surface, the relative effect of peat accumulation and rising sea levels were modelled over 200 years to determine how frequently portions of the wetland will be inundated by mean sea level, mean high water spring and mean high water neap conditions. The model takes into account changing extents of peat accumulation as hydrological conditions alter.
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