Modelamiento hidro-económico de los efectos del cambio climático y política en la agricultura andina | Hydro-economic modeling of the climate change and politics effects in Andean agriculture

[EN] Climate change has been affecting agriculture activities, particularly, in the Andean Region, given its high level of exposure, sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. The adaptive response of Andean agriculture to a variation in water availability due to climate change was evaluated. For this, a hydro-economic model was developed that integrates two modules: hydrological modeling based on SWAT and an economic optimization model based on PMP. There is a high agricultural vulnerability to climate change, situation that could be reversed through the application of an agricultural policy based on the efficient use of water.

[ES] El cambio climático viene afectando de manera diferenciada a la agricultura, en particular, en la zona andina, dada su alta exposición, sensibilidad y baja capacidad adaptativa. Se evaluó la respuesta adaptativa de la agricultura andina frente a una variación de la disponibilidad hídrica debido al cambio climático en base al modelo hidro-económico que integra dos módulos: el modelamiento hidrológico en base al SWAT y un modelo económico de optimización en base al PMP. Se determinó una alta vulnerabilidad agrícola frente al cambio climático situación que podría revertirse al aplicar una política agraria en base al uso eficiente del agua.

OJS

Crispin Cunya, M.; Ponce Oliva, RD.; Rendon Schneir, E.; Arias Montevechio, EE. (2023). Modelamiento hidro-económico de los efectos del cambio climático y política en la agricultura andina. Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales - Agricultural and Resource Economics. 23(1):55-87. https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2023.01.03

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Los autores agradecen al Convenio de Subvención N.° 200-2015-FONDECYT, que en su cláusula tercera otorga a favor de la Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina una subvención para el desarrollo del Doctorado de Economía de los Recursos Naturales y desarrollo sustentable

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