Could domestic soybean production avoid Europe’s protein imports in 2050?☆

The European Union has a high demand for plant proteins for food and feed. Its self-sufficiency rate is about 5% for soya crude proteins. The European Union and its Member States have launched initiatives for reducing soya imports that come mainly from South America and promoting domestic production of protein-rich crops. In the future, climate suitability for soybean cultivation is likely to increase in oceanic and continental Europe. The recent AE2050 study (INRAE. 2020. Role of European agriculture in world trade by 2050: Balancing climate change and global food security issues. Summary report of the study. INRAE (France), 12 p; Tibi A, Forslund A, Debaeke P, et al. 2020. Place des agricultures européennes dans le monde à l’horizon 2050 : entre enjeux climatiques et défis de la sécurité alimentaire. Rapport de synthèse de l’étude. INRAE (France), 159 p + Annexes) concluded that, in some parts of Europe (defined here as the European Union-27 plus other Balkan countries, Switzerland, Norway and the United Kingdom), cropland requirements in 2050 may be lower than “2010” cropland areas given possible changes in European food demand (related to glooming demographic growth and under the assumption of healthy diets) and in crop yields (influenced by technological developments and climate change). In this study, we examine to what extent this “cropland surplus” could be used to increase soybean production in Europe and reduce the dependency ratio on protein imports. Only in the case of a Healthy Diets scenario (less meat consumption, inducing less animals fed with cakes), substantial soybean acreages could be envisaged to reduce the European reliance on imports. In addition to the surplus allowed by increasing yields, land surplus was also made available by the reduction of livestock production and its grain feed requirements. The best-case scenario, combining healthy diets and trend-based yield growth, would reduce European imports to only 15% of its total domestic requirements versus 45% for the Trend-based Diets scenario. This can be compared to a dependency rate of 51% in our base year “2010”, and of 53%–54% for the two 2050 scenarios without growing soybean on cropland surplus. If the range of these quite optimistic estimations of surplus land dedicated to soybean was reduced to more plausible levels (limited to 10% of annual field cropland in 2050) and considering current soybean yield levels (“2019” instead of “2010”), the decrease in Europe’s oil cake imports levels would be lower. However, its dependency rate could still be reduced from 54% to 46% in the Trend-based Diets scenario, and from 53% to 38% in the Healthy Diets scenario. One important conclusion is that adopting healthy diets would allow a significant reduction of imports of soybean cakes from abroad with expected environmental benefits in Europe and overseas. On the supply side, challenges for a higher self-sufficiency rate of proteins in Europe resulting from the development of soybean domestic production will come from both available and suitable crop areas, attainable yields and relative profitability.