Water Consumption by Livestock Systems from 2002–2020 and Predictions for 2030–2050 under Climate Changes in the Czech Republic
2023
Vera Potopová | Marie Musiolková | Juliana Arbelaez Gaviria | Miroslav Trnka | Petr Havlík | Esther Boere | Tudor Trifan | Nina Muntean | Md Rafique Ahasan Chawdhery
The livestock system in Europe relies on a complex holistic equilibrium that is the outcome of an interplay of demand, market, crop production, livestock production, land use, water availability, and other factors. When modeling future scenarios of water consumption by livestock systems, the most suitable tools result from the interconnectivity of growth models, economic models, and climate models. We integrated the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate growth model (EPIC), animal-level model (RUMINANT), economic model (Global Biosphere Management Model, GLOBIOM), EURO-CORDEX climate models, and regression models. This study developed novel livestock production scenarios for individual regions of the Czech Republic with estimations of the categories of livestock that have been bred during the last 20 years and will be bred in the future and what their water consumption will be, both throughout the year and in particular seasons. First, the numbers of farm animals, namely, cattle, pigs, sheep, horses, goats, and poultry in 2002–2020 were evaluated, and their numbers were predicted for the following years until 2050. Second, livestock water consumption per region was determined based on the number of livestock individuals. Third, changes in the amount of water consumed by livestock per year in individual regions in 2050 compared to 2005 were estimated.
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