Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecological Risk in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt

Exploring the landscape ecological security pattern and its driving mechanisms in key economic zones is of great significance for preventing and resolving landscape ecological risks and promoting regional sustainable development. This study quantitatively analyzed the land use change characteristics in the Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt from 1980 to 2020 using the land use transfer matrix and land use intensity index. Further, the evolution of ecological risks and their driving mechanisms were investigated using the landscape pattern index and hierarchical partitioning analysis. The results show that (1) in terms of absolute area, dryland, grassland, and paddy land decreased by 7075 km², 2708 km², and 1874 km², respectively, while urban–rural land and water area increased by 10,538 km² and 1336 km², respectively. In terms of change intensity, grassland, water area, urban–rural land, and unused land exhibited the most dramatic change, whereas forest land, paddy land, and dryland exhibited weaker change. (2) The conversions in the study area were primarily between dryland, paddy land, and urban–rural land. Paddy land and dryland tended to convert to urban–rural land, which is further likely to be transformed into dryland and unused land when converted. (3) The study area mainly presented medium to low ecological risk. Overall, the ecological risk remained stable throughout the study period. Nevertheless, Jining, Zaozhuang, and Bengbu show high ecological risks in the construction of the economic zone. (4) Forest land explained 40% of the variance in landscape risk, whereas urban–rural land and dryland each explained 20% of the variance. An increase in the proportion of urban–rural land and dryland will increase landscape ecological risk. However, after urban–rural land exceeds 15%, the ecological security risk does not increase significantly with increasing proportion of urban–rural land.