Effects of Land Cover Changes on Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Using SlideforMAP Software (Mt. Nerone, Italy)

Land cover changes in mountainous areas due to silvo-pastoral abandonment can affect soil stability, especially on steep slopes. In addition, the increase in rainfall intensity in recent decades requires re-assessing landslide susceptibility and vegetation management for soil protection. This study was carried out using the software SlideforMAP in the Mt. Nerone massif (central Italy) to assess (i) the effects of land cover changes on slope stability over the past 70 years (1954–2021) and (ii) the role of actual vegetation cover during intense rainfall events. The study area has undergone a significant change in vegetation cover over the years, with a reduction in mainly pastures (−80%) and croplands (−22%) land cover classes in favor of broadleaf forests (+64%). We simulated twelve scenarios, combining land cover conditions and rainfall intensities, and analyzed the landslide failure probability results. Vegetation cover significantly increased the slope stability, up to three to four times compared to the unvegetated areas (29%, 68%, and 89%, respectively, in the no cover, 1954, and 2021 scenarios). The current land cover provided protection against landslide susceptibility, even during extreme rainfall events, for different return periods. The 30-year return period was a critical condition for a significant stability reduction. In addition, forest species provide different mitigation effects due to their root system features. The results showed that species with deep root systems, such as oaks, provide more effective slope stability than other species, such as pines. This study helps to quantify the mitigation effects of vegetation cover and suggests that physically based probabilistic models can be used at the regional scale to detect the areas prone to failure and the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This approach can be important in land planning and management to mitigate risks in mountainous regions.