Modélisation prospective des paysages de la Forêt Classée du Haut Sassandra (Côte d'Ivoire) après la fin des conflits
2018
Vignal, M. | Andrieu, J.
Landscapes Prospective Modeling of the landscapes of the Haut Sassandra Classified Forest (Côte d'Ivoire) After the End of The Conflicts. It has been demonstrated that armed conflicts cause biodiversity's degradation, especially in its ecosystemic and specific dimensions. The Haut Sassandra Classified Forest is an interesting case study for this kind of process. Indeed, during the conflicts, a massive migrants infiltration caused a forest cover decline and a plant diversity loss. We created a multi-agent system able to simulate the actors' movements and behaviors. The social simulation generates scenario in the form of clearing maps in classified forest. This model was first conceived as a retro-prospective model in order to test hypotheses on the social dynamics underlying this process, after having worked on its accuracy by confronting reality. This model being validated, the aim of this paper is to present a prospective modeling to illustrate, in terms of forest cover's conservation, the possible consequences of different demographic and political scenarios. Across a geoprospective logic, two scenarios are mentioned such as the continuation of conflict period trends and a proposition of ecological restoration.
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