Security pattern and trend of import trade of major food in China in the context of dual circulation

[Objective] Food security is related to the national economy and people’s livelihood. Building a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main part and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other is an important measure to ensure food security in China’s new development stage. [Methods] This study is based on data on the import and trade of eight major foods in China from 2014 to 2022, including grains, meat, eggs and milk, aquatic products, sugars, oilseeds (mainly including soybeans), vegetables, and fruits, from the perspective of future import trade demand, used the GM (1,1) model to predict the import trade volume of major food from 2023 to 2027. From the perspective of the current situation of the import trade market, calculated the market concentration ratio (<i>CR</i>₄ and <i>HHI</i> indices) and the change of import trade centers, analyzed the main factors affecting the growth rate of the import trade volume of major food through gray correlation analysis, and examined the security situation of import trade, to provide some recommendations for ensuring food security in China. [Results] (1) Currently, China’s food security for grains is absolutely guaranteed, but with the current adjustment in residents’ dietary structure and the deepening of nutrition and health concepts, the proportion of grain foods in people’s daily food consumption is continuously decreasing. The supply of non-grain foods cannot be fully met by the domestic market alone and needs long-term supplementation through the international market. However, apart from aquatic products, there are certain risks in major food import trades, which affect China’s food security and are not conducive to the operation of the “dual circulation” economic development model. (2) In China’s major food import trades, the growth rates of imports for meat, grains, and sugar showed significant fluctuations, exerting a considerable impact on the import trades of the other five major food categories. (3) There has been a significant shift in the focus of major food import trades, especially with the notable growth of Brazil in oilseeds, meat, and sugar imports, the expanding share of Russia in aquatic products and grain imports, and the increasing prominence of Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Myanmar in vegetable and fruit imports. These changes reflect the increasing importance of emerging markets in China’s major food imports. [Conclusion] Through the strategic adjustment of China’s food import trade toward increasing the market share of emerging markets such as the Belt and Road and BRICS countries, trade stability has improved. However, with the continued expansion of China’s food import demand in the future, more sustainable development cooperation models need to be explored to ensure the security of import trade.