Monitoring Afromontane forest cover loss and the associated socio-ecological drivers in Kaffa biosphere reserve, Ethiopia

Accurate and up-to-date information on spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) is helpful in understanding the relationship between the environment and society. The main objective of this study was to quantify the overall trends in LULC changes and the rate of forest loss between 1986 and 2019 and projects for the years 2034 and 2049. Landsat satellite imagery acquired in 1986, 1999, 2009 and 2019 were selected to classify the LULC types with a supervised classification algorithm that uses the maximum likelihood classifier technique. The Kappa coefficient (90–92%) and overall accuracy (0.87–0.91) of the Landsat-derived LULC maps were within the acceptable range. The study results show the existence of spatiotemporal LULC changes resulting in serious forest losses. The analysis revealed that the considerable growth in agricultural land (87.9%) and settlement areas (157%) in the biosphere reserve during the investigation period resulted in a substantial decrease in the area of natural habitats. For instance, the grassland, forest coverage, and wetlands were declined by 74.3%, 30.5%, and 18.1%, respectively. The major drivers for the expansion of agricultural land and settlement areas in the biosphere reserve were the expansion of semi-forest coffee farm investment, human population expansion, resettlement campaigns, and poor follow-up on participatory forest management users. These socio-ecological drivers caused a decline in the proportion of natural habitat areas coupled with a decline in the quality and quantity of their ecosystem services. Thus, efforts are required to manage the ecosystems of Kaffa biosphere reserve through well-integrated landscape resource planning like zonation between economic development and conservation areas. As a result, the land use maps and other data produced in this study can contribute to the development of sustainable land use planning and biodiversity conservation.