Groundwater Sustainability Assessment against the Population Growth Modelling in Bima City, Indonesia

Most of Indonesia’s population lives in areas with volcanic–alluvium geological characteristics. Based on the national hydrogeological map of the Indonesian Geological Agency, areas with volcanic–alluvium geological conditions have high groundwater potential and potential for groundwater damage. This study aims to test the resilience of groundwater areas with volcanic–alluvial characteristics to population growth. The MODFLOW groundwater model was built based on the site’s volcanic and alluvial geological conditions. This groundwater model was tested against pumping scenarios based on population water demand in 2011–2020 and then predicted population growth until 2030. The result shows that groundwater resilience in volcanic–alluvium locations has different characteristics based on lithology and population density characteristics. Urban areas that are mostly located in alluvium areas tend to have a linear groundwater decline pattern but have the sharpest groundwater decline gradient. In contrast, suburban areas in the alluvium-to-volcanic transition area initially experience exponential groundwater decline but change to linear, while rural areas located in volcanic areas that become the main development target have exponential groundwater decline characteristics. To counteract the continuous depletion of groundwater, researchers conducted a scenario for optimizing surface water use. Based on the results of the scenario, a 60% reduction in groundwater use is sufficient to stop continuous groundwater depletion. The results of this study can be used as a recommendation for long-term water resources management targets for volcanic and alluvium areas that are being targeted for development.