Unlocking horizontal and vertical cropping intensification potentials to address landlessness and food security challenges of rainfed crop production systems in Ethiopia: potential, performance, and gap assessment

Knowledge-based evidence about potential and existing rainfed cropping is crucial for decision-making for sustainable land use and food security. Using multi-criteria spatial analysis techniques, this study assessed the current status of cropland availability and projected impacts on future crop production in Ethiopia. The study primarily defined the extent of the Rainfed Cropping Area (RCA) and assessed the performances of different cropping practices. After precisely mapping cultivated area, cropping intensification potentials were estimated. Subsequently, disregarding the existing cultivated area, completely unsuitable areas, and protected and intact forest areas, the potentially available arable land using suitability analysis techniques was determined. In addition, the performance of existing crop production systems was evaluated against the natural potential. The findings reveal that RCA covers ~60% of the country’s landmass, of which cropping is practiced in only 33%. The coverage of Potentially Available Cropland (yet uncultivated) accounts for 16% of the country’s RCA. This is dominantly located in sparsely populated western and southwestern parts of the country. This study confirms that Horizontal Cropping Intensification (HCI) in the RCA of Ethiopia reaches only 33%. On the other hand, Vertical Cropping Intensification (VCI) practices cover only 10%, while about 1/3 of the RCA is suitable for VCI strategies at various levels of suitability. The performance of existing VCI-oriented cropping (which covers only 10% of the RCA) is very poor. Challenges to the use of the available cropland and ways of addressing land shortage for needy farmers are highlighted to inform efforts to readdress landlessness and food insecurity in Ethiopia.